An analysis of the death toll in Gaza  exposes a shameful negligence of basic standards of global journalism – statistics provided by the Hamas-run Ministry of Health do “not add up”

By Andrew Fox

The Henry Jackson Society report into Hamas’ fatality statistics in Gaza has now been released. We have very deliberately tried to omit value judgment and opinions from the report and give benefit of the doubt as much as possible. It is still damning: there is just too much wrong. Too many errors, too many impossibilities, too many signs of obvious data manipulation.

We wrote this report not to give a definitive figure. We wrote it to give people the means to rebut the false narrative. Wherever possible we have relied solely on Hamas’ own figures to damn them. Our primary source, overwhelmingly, was Hamas themselves.

Let me break it down chapter by chapter.

Chapter 1 deals with the methodology of the reporting. There are three mechanisms used by Hamas. Fatalities are recorded through:

– a mix of hospital reports

– family submissions using an open-source online form, and

– “media sources”.

In each of the methodologies, Hamas’ own figures show men as the group most likely to be killed. Adult males made up only 26% of Gaza’s population before the war.

Men are dying in disproportionate numbers – especially men of fighting age. This chapter allows anyone arguing with the pro-Hamas mob to prove that Israel is targeting fighters, not innocents.

Chapter 2 deals with the age breakdown of demographics in much more detail.

This chapter allows you to comprehensively rebut the idea that Israel is targeting women and children.

Chapter 3 reveals that Hamas  – adding to the rapists and murderers that they are – are also liars. Its claim of Gazan resident’s “killed by IDF action” is a fabrication when exposed as having being killed by themselves directly or through their own rockets that have fallen short and as well as including natural deaths.

It is beyond me why international media would not realise this. Hamas publishes the lists of people authorised to leave Gaza for medical treatment. It takes no time at all to cross reference. Shameful negligence of basic standards of journalism.

Chapter 4 proves that the IDF is telling the truth about how many combatants they have killed.

We have corroborated this all through open-source reporting. We could get nothing out of the IDF for this report, with the exception of two sources, low in the chain whose anonymity I am protecting so as not to land them in trouble.

The IDF did not cooperate in this research except where interviews are credited in the footnotes. In hindsight I’m pleased; it strengthens the report.

From this chapter one can conclusively extrapolate that the IDF are telling the truth when they say it’s 17-20 thousand (although after the Jabalia operation, completed after submission, I suggest it is now 18 thousand at a minimum).

Chapter 5 is my favourite. You know that old canard “Hamas deaths stats have been reliable in the past”?

They haven’t.

This chapter allows you to put that to bed once and for all. We have proven that Hamas lies about civilian deaths during the conflict, and actively coerces Gaza’s population to conceal Hamas combatant deaths.

Chapter 6 is the work of the amazing Tania Glezer from Fifty.Global and the International Institute for Social and Legal Studies.

They show the shocking imbalance in global media reporting on this conflict.

The West’s media has taken the conscious decision to platform the murderous rapists of Hamas over the democratic, accountable military of a country that is an ally to many of our nations. They repeat Hamas’ lies wholesale, without any scrutiny.

Shameful.

No wonder the dialogue on this conflict is as toxic as it is. Our traditional media have some serious questions to answer.

In response to the Telegraph article about our report the BBC said:

“It is challenging to report accurately on the death toll in Gaza as Israel does not allow independent access to international journalists. BBC News is clear and transparent in sourcing the figures which are available and attributing them to the Hamas-run health authority.

Beyond this, we use a range of sources to understand the impact of the war in Israel and Gaza on civilians including the IDF, the health ministry in Gaza and the UN.”

Oh yeah?

See chart below. From the data manipulation we have identified in this report, Hamas’ figures are so flawed and unreliable, international media and the UN should not be using them at all.

FINAL THOUGHTS

We’re seeing the positive response from the friendly today. I have no doubt that the next week will see a shitstorm of abuse and attempts to discredit.

But here’s the beauty of the report: it’s only Hamas’ figures we have used. Try and discredit the report, and you’re discrediting Hamas’ figures either way.

The comments of Husam Zomlot, head of the Palestine Mission to the United Kingdom, have delighted me. I’ll probably get them framed.

He said:

“Numerous international organisations and UN agencies – including the WHO – have not only confirmed these numbers, they’ve made the point that they are severely underestimated.”

The UN does not publish these figures without at least a caveat that they are unverified. Give them that much credit. Many have said they’re underestimated there is no evidence for that either other than wild supposition, like that ludicrous letter to the Lancet. Mr. Zomlot has reacted to accusations of inaccuracy with a repetition of more inaccuracy.

This report was compiled by a team comprising of the brilliant Dr Mark Zlochin, Salo Aizenberg, Elliot Malin and Tania Glezer.

Here’s the link to the full report:

https://henryjacksonsociety.org/publications/questionable-counting

About the writer:

A veteran of three grueling tours of Afghanistan, Major Andrew Fox holds a Batchelor’s degree in Law & Politics, a Master’s in Military History & War Studies, and is currently studying for a PhD in History.

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