Historically the midterm elections result in a loss of seats by the ruling party in the House of Representatives and a small change in the makeup of the Senate.
By Neville Berman
The United States President is elected for a four-year term of office. Half way through this 4-year period, an election takes place that is known as the midterm elections. The next midterm elections are due to take place on November 3, 2026. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives, and 1/3 of the Senate seats are up for re-election.
The United States Congress is the legislative body of the federal government of the United States. It is made up of an upper body known as the Senate, and a lower body known as the House of Representatives. Members of the House of Representatives are elected for 2-year terms and members of the Senate are elected for 6-year terms. There are 100 members of the Senate, with each of the 50 States electing 2 senators irrespective of the population or size of each state. In the event of a tie in a Senate vote, the vice president has an additional vote in the Senate There are 435 members of Congress elected by electoral districts in each state.

The US House of Representatives is the body that proposes federal laws. The Senate then needs to approve the laws passed by the House. Finally, the President needs to sign the bill before the bill becomes federal law. If the President chooses to veto the bill, in most cases Congress can then vote to override the veto and the bill then becomes federal law.
There have been 20 US midterm elections since the end of the Second World War. In 10 of these elections, the President was a Democrat, and in an equal number the President was a Republican. Let us look back at what happened in the first of these 20 midterm elections and see if there is any resemblance to the next midterm election.
In November 1944, Franklin Delano Roosevelt was elected for an unprecedented fourth term of office as President. His vice president was Harry S Truman. They were sworn into office in January 1945. Eighty-two days after the inauguration, President Roosevelt died and Truman was sworn in as the 37th President of the United States. He was the 7th Vice President to become President due to the death of the President while in office. Truman was a poor farmer from Missouri, who never went to university, and never ran a successful business. He was now the President of the most powerful country in the world. On his desk, he placed a sign that read “The buck stops here”. Truman took this to heart. He took decisions that changed the world.

Less than one month after Truman became President, Nazi Germany surrendered unconditionally. However, the War in the Pacific was far from over. In order to shorten the war and save American lives, Truman signed an order authorizing the use of atomic bombs in the war against Japan.
On August 6, 1945 the first atomic bomb named Little Boy, was dropped on Hiroshima. Three days later the second atomic bomb, named Fat Man, was dropped on Nagasaki. Between 150,000 and 246,000 people were killed, almost all of whom were civilians.
Six days later, Emperor Hirohito addressed the nation on radio. He could not bring himself to use the word ‘surrender’. Instead, he said that Japan had agreed to an American proposal. Everyone understood that Japan had surrendered.
On September 2, 1945 the formal signing of Japanese unconditional surrender took place aboard the USS Missouri. The Second World War was finally over.
Having won the war, one would imagine that Americans would overwhelmingly vote to support the ruling Democratic Party in the midterm elections the following year. So, what happened?

During the war wages in America were frozen and price controls were instituted. With the war over, all the big military contracts were cancelled, and at the same time the labour unions were demanding a 30% increase in salaries. Millions of workers were laid off. The steelworkers’ union went on strike. Hundreds of factories including General Motors were closed due to labour strikes. At the same time millions of soldiers were returning and could not find jobs. Three weeks before the 1946 midterm elections the meat workers went on strike. People were despondent and fed up with the government. In the 1946 midterm elections the Republican party ran on the slogan “Had enough”.” The slogan resonated with the electorate. The Republicans won in a landslide and gained control of both the Senate and the House. The Democrats lost 45 seats in the House and 12 seats in the Senate.
At present, the Republicans have 218 seats in the House and the Democrats have 215 seats. The Republicans thus have a slender 3 seat majority in the House. Two members of the House resigned in April and their seats are presently vacant.

In 80% of the last 20 midterm elections the ruling party has lost control of the House of Representatives. The average number of seats in the House lost when Democrats were in power in the last 20 midterm elections is 27. In the case where the Republicans were in power, the average number of seats lost in the House over the last 20 midterm elections is 22. If this trend continues, the Republicans will lose control of the House in the next midterm elections.

In the Senate, the Republicans presently have a 53 to 47 advantage. Included in the 47 are 2 independents who caucus with the Democrats. In 60% of the midterm elections since 1946, the ruling party has retained control of the Senate with a reduced majority, and in 40% of the elections, the ruling party lost control of the Senate. Republicans under Eisenhower, Ford and Reagan all lost control of the Senate in the midterm elections. Based on the data of the past 20 midterm elections, there is a statistical likelihood that the electorate will again demonstrate that they have had enough and want change. If the past is any indication of what will happen, the Republican Party will in all likelihood lose their majority in the House. and will either have a reduced majority in the Senate, or will lose control of the Senate in the next midterm elections.

In 1947, the 22nd Amendment of the American Constitution was passed. The amendment limited the Presidency to a maximum of two terms of four years each. As President Trump is now in his second term in office, he cannot stand again in the next Presidential election due to take place in November 2028.

No matter what the actual outcome of the next midterm election will be, Trump will remain President until 2028 unless he is impeached. He will probably govern by signing more Presidential Decrees. America is indispensable in its role as a superpower and any weakening of American resolve will have a devastating effect on what happens in the future. The coming midterm elections will provide the first clue as to what can be expected after Trump leaves office. The situation does not augur well for a peaceful and prosperous future for the Middle East or for anywhere else.
*Feature photo: Capitol Hill. The western front of the United States Capitol, Washington DC. (Phoyo: Public Domain)
About the writer:

Accountant Neville Berman had an illustrious sporting career in South Africa, being twice awarded the South African State Presidents Award for Sport and was a three times winner of the South African Maccabi Sportsman of the Year Award. In 1978 he immigrated to the USA to coach the United States men’s field hockey team, whereafter, in 1981 he immigrated to Israel where he practiced as an accountant and then for 20 years was the Admin Manager at the American International School in Even Yehuda, Israel. He is married with two children and one granddaughter.
While the mission of Lay of the Land (LotL) is to provide a wide and diverse perspective of affairs in Israel, the Middle East and the Jewish world, the opinions, beliefs and viewpoints expressed by its various writers are not necessarily ones of the owners and management of LOTL but of the writers themselves. LotL endeavours to the best of its ability to credit the use of all known photographs to the photographer and/or owner of such photographs (0&EO).




















































