Two alternatives to forming an Israeli government

By Neville Berman

Every Israeli citizen over the age of 18, irrespective of race, religion or sex, is entitled to vote in the next Israeli election on October 27. As there is no postal voting in Israel, you need to be present in Israel to exercise your right to vote.  As no political party in the State of Israel has ever won an outright majority of  61 seats, every government in Israel has been a coalition government.

All the polls concerning the Israeli elections on October 27 indicate that neither of the two leading parties will be able to form a coalition government of 61 seats. The most likely result is another stalemate, and another election or series of elections to follow. Elections themselves cost billions of shekels. Israel simply cannot afford to have another series of elections. Judging by the polls, the Likud under Bibi Netanyahu, together with all the religious parties will not achieve 61 seats. The other leading party, the Yashir party led by Gadi Eisenkot, will also not be able to form a government of 61 seats. If the Arab party called Ra’am led by Mansour Abbas, wants to join Eisenkot in forming a coalition, then Avigdor Liberman and his Yisrael Beiteinu party will withdraw from supporting Eisenkot. This is a catch 22 situation. Fortunately, there does appear to be two alternatives to what transpired in the past.

Firstly, a minority government can legally be formed. This can be done by one or more of the political parties agreeing not to vote in the Knesset to bring down the government. Let us assume that the coalition of Gadi Eisenkot has 56 seats and the Arab parties have 14 seats. If the Arab parties agree not to vote against the government in a no confidence vote, then the President can decide to call upon a coalition of less than a majority of 61 seats to form a minority government. The Likud and their partners do not have sufficient votes to stop the government from being formed. In the current situation, this is a distinct possibility. The coalition of 56 seats can survive as long as the Arab parties refuse to join a vote of no-confidence in the government.

The elephant in the room is this election is none other than the longest serving Israeli Prime Minister, namely Bibi Netanyahu. He has become an extremely divisive figure in Israeli politics and around the world. His judgement in certain areas is questionable. After the last election, he appointed Aryeh Deri, the head of the Shas party, to be deputy prime minister and rotating finance minister after Bezalel Smotrich would serve the first 2 years as finance minister.  Aryeh Deri was previously convicted for financial impropriety and fraud and served time in jail.

The Supreme Court ruled that it was totally unreasonable to appoint such a person to be deputy prime minister or finance minister.

What was Bibi thinking when he appointed Deri?  Netanyahu has refused to appoint an independent commission of enquiry into the failure of the government to protect the citizens of Israel on October 7, 2023 while he was Prime Minister.  In addition, he has not supported the demand that tens of thousands of draft age yeshiva students be drafted into the army. Netanyahu seems to be seeking dictatorial powers by supporting legislation that will allow decisions of the Supreme Court to be overruled by a simple majority in the Knesset. Israel is now faced with the situation that a number of political parties have stated that they will not sit in a government led by Netanyahu. Most of these parties have not stated that they will not sit with the Likud party. Over the years, some members of the Likud left the party and went on to form political parties that now refuse to sit with Netanyahu.

The answer to preventing a left of center government from being formed, is for the Likud itself to force Netanyahu to resign. The Likud without Netanyahu as its leader, will change the entire political landscape in Israel. A center right wing government can then be formed without any of the religious, Arab or left-wing parties in the current election. Obviously, some of the Likud members are very much beholden to Netanyahu and they will not support this. The choice that they will face is either a left of center Israeli government or a right of center government without Netanyahu. The irony is that the best chance of a center right wing government being formed in Israel, is for Netanyahu to resign. As long as Netanyahu is head of the Likud it seems like another stalemate in Israeli politics is about to occur.

For the good of the country, Bibi needs to resign.

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