“At no point in the war had the Allies achieved a definite, clean success. How then, was the war to be brought to an end?” David Lloyd George, the British Secretary of State for War, at a meeting of the British War Cabinet in October 1916.
By Neville Berman
The First World War started in August 1914 and ended in November 1918. It resulted in between 16-22 million deaths. In his ‘The Road Less Traveled: The Secret Battle to End the Great War, 1916-1917’, historian Philip Zelikow, makes the case that millions of lives could have been saved if the opportunity to achieve peace in early 1916 would have materialized. According to Zelikow, incompetent politicians, who overestimated both the military and financial capabilities of their countries, shrank from their responsibility of ending the war. Below is an abridged form of the story that is particularly relevant to the present situation in the Middle East and to the Russian – Ukraine war.
Britain entered the First World War on August 4th 1914. The popular concept at the time was that the boys would be home for Christmas. The reality proved to be completely different. H. G. Wells coined the expression “The war that will end war” Ironically, the aftermath of the war contributed to the conditions that led to the Second World War.
In 1905, Japan was lacking financial resources to continue its war with Russia and asked President Theodore Roosevelt to try to mediate a peace between the warring parties. Roosevelt succeeded in bringing an end to the war and was awarded the 1906 Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts – the first American to win a Nobel Prize.
Woodrow Wilson was the 28th President of the United States when the war broke out in Europe in 1914. He maintained a policy of strict and impartial neutrality and was against American involvement in what he considered a European war. Inspired by what Roosevelt achieved in 1905, Wilson entertained the idea that America could play the role of a mediator and end the war in Europe without actually taking an active part in the war itself.
In May 1915, a German U-boat torpedoed the luxury civilian ship Lusitania just off the coast of Ireland. 1,198 people were killed including 128 Americans. Both Republicans and Democrats still did not want America to become involved in a European war.
In 1915, all the offences by Britain and France had failed. In February 1915, the disastrous Gallipoli Campaign was launched against Ottoman troops in the Balkans. By the time the campaign ended in January the following year, over 73,485 Allied soldiers from Great Britain, France, Australia, New Zealand and India had been killed or injured. Almost nothing had been achieved by the campaign.
President Wilson saw the continuation of the war as a tragedy. Wilson came to the conclusion that there was a need to develop a new basis for managing world politics. He also believed that American economic power might play a crucial role in bringing justice and peace to the world.
Wilson’s closest friend and advisor was a wealthy Texan by the name of Edward Mandel House. He was known as Colonel House even though he never served in the military. In December 1915, President Wison asked Colonel House to travel to Europe as his personal envoy. House was thrilled with the idea and relished meeting the leaders of Europe. At the time, Germany had occupied Belgium and controlled Alsace-Lorraine. The mission of Colonel House was to see if Britain, France and Germany would agree to a peace conference called for by America. As President Wilson would be involved in a re-election campaign towards the end of 1916, the window of opportunity for American mediation and a peace conference would have to be completed before the end of the summer of 1916.
Colonel House arrived in London in January 2016. He met with Edward Grey the British Foreign Secretary and Lloyd George the Minister of Munitions. Despite the fact that they had been warned by the Treasury that Britain would not be able to sustain the war after the coming summer, they informed Colonel House that Britain was in a good position to outlast Germany and that victory was in sight.
A month later Colonel House arrived in Paris. He met with the American Ambassador to France, Willliam Sharp, and French officials including and former Premier Georges Clemenceau. The discussions focused on French willingness to accept American mediation. The French were of the opinion that American mediation would result in Germany retaining Alsace-Lorraine and that Belgium would remain under German control. Like the British, the French rejected the idea of American mediation.
In Berlin, House met with Chancellor Bethmann Hollweg and with the German Foreign Secretary Gottlieb von Jagow. Both were fluent in English. They were of the opinion that Germany was winning the war and that it was not in Germany’s interest to seek or agree to American mediation. The Chancellor spoke about the challenge of political leaders being unable to free themselves from “the machine of war passion.” As Colonel House was departing, the German Chancellor mentioned that House should remember the name Verdun.
Colonel House returned to Washington and informed the President that none of the warring parties had agreed to accept American mediation. Almost unnoticed, the possibility of ending the war in early 1916 had slipped away. The war would continue for another 20 months with millions more dying and being injured unnecessarily. House recorded in his diary that:
“War is not so much a breakdown of civilization as it is a failure of statesmanship.”
In February1916, the Germans attacked the French in a place called Verdun. The Battle of Verdun would last for 302 days and would be one of the bloodiest battles of the war. The entire battle consisted of brutal trench warfare in an area of less than 20 kilometers. It consisted of attacks and counter attacks in appalling conditions. It resulted in 377,231 French casualties and approximately 337,000 German casualties with an average of 70,000 soldiers killed or injured per month. It ended on December 18, 1916, with the French repulsing the German offensive at an appalling cost to both sides.
On July 1, another battle began – in northern France. It was called the Battle of the Somme. The massive Allied army consisted of soldiers from Britain, Ireland, Newfoundland, South Africa and India. They faced an equally large German army. Both armies had dug trenches that were separated by a few hundred yards of “no-mans land.” On the first day of the Somme offensive, over a hundred thousand men of the British army were ordered “over the top.” They were mowed down in the thousands by German machine gun fire and artillery. The British suffered 57,470 casualties including over 19,000 deaths in one day. It was one of the bloodiest days in the history of the British army. A small strip of “no man’s land.” was gained. The senseless battle would continue for five more months. The use of poison gas led to tens of thousands of casualties. By the time the Battle of the Somme ended on November 19, 1916, more than a million soldiers from both sides were either killed, wounded or went missing. Like all wars, new technologies were invented. The First World War saw the introduction of tanks and aircraft. After the Battle of the Somme, Britain found itself very short of both sufficient manpower and finance. In order to raise money J.P Morgan, was entrusted with issuing British Bonds in the US. It was hugely undersubscribed and Britain was plunged into a financial crisis.
In March 1916, the French passenger ship, the Sussex was torpedoed in the English Channel. It led to the Sussex Pledge whereby Germany agreed that passenger ships would not be targeted, and that merchant ships would not be sunk unless they were first searched and found to be carrying weapons. In such an event, the crew of the merchant ship would be allowed to safely leave the ship before it was sunk.
In November 1916, President Wilson was re-elected for a second term as President and was now even more determined to renew his efforts to form an international body to help prevent war.
In January 1917, Germany was convinced that it could win the war by cutting off supplies to Britain by unrestricted submarine warfare. The Sussex Pledge was rescinded by Germany with immediate effect. It would herald the beginning of the First Battle of the Atlantic.
In February 1917, British intelligence intercepted and decoded a secret message from Germany to Mexico, in which it was proposed that Mexico would join Germany in attacking America and that Mexico would be able to reclaim Texas and Arizona. The British sent a telegram known as the Zimmerman telegram revealing the decoded message to President Truman. After nineteen merchant ships were sunk by German U-boats in the Atlantic, and the staggering revelation of the Zimmerman telegram that was released to the public, Americans turned against Germany. On April 6, 1917, Congress passed a Declaration of War against Germany. Once America entered the war against Germany, it was only a question of time before Germany was decisively defeated. It still took nearly another 6 months before the First World War ended on the ninth hour of the ninth month of 1918. Over 116,00 Americans were killed in the war. This figure included over 63,000 soldiers who died from diseases and the influenza pandemic of 1918.
Zelikow makes a strong case that the war could have ended 18 months earlier. Millions of lives and untold billions could have been saved. Having the foresight to end wars, instead of continuing in the belief that total victory is possible, is what separates statesmen from politicians.
It is a message for both Netanyahu and Putin should contemplate.
Feature picture: Soldiers in a WWI frontline facing poison-laden projectiles. Could this war have ended before this horrifying development? (Photo: Maj. Tracy Everts/US Army Signal Corps/Getty Images).
About the writer:
Accountant Neville Berman had an illustrious sporting career in South Africa, being twice awarded the South African State Presidents Award for Sport and was a three times winner of the South African Maccabi Sportsman of the Year Award. In 1978 he immigrated to the USA to coach the United States men’s field hockey team, whereafter, in 1981 he immigrated to Israel where he practiced as an accountant and then for 20 years was the Admin Manager at the American International School in Even Yehuda, Israel. He is married with two children and one granddaughter.
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