Perspectives and insights from writers in the Arab media
In the wake of monumental fallout of Israel’s impactful wars against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, Arab media scrambles with uncertainty to decipher how the future Middle East political landscape may evolve. Confounding their instigative coverage is the ‘Trump factor’ – the new US president whose power and personality has regional political leaders perplexed and wondering:
‘What, where and when?’
David E. Kaplan
Editor Lay of the Land
*(Articles translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)
PRESIDENT TRUMP AND THE GULF
By Abdullah Bishara
Al Qabas, Kuwait, February 12
President Trump has returned to the presidency of the United States, buoyed by an unforeseen landslide victory that has propelled him back into the White House. His success has left him intoxicated with triumph and armed with an agenda filled with ambitious plans that encompass both the feasible and the challenging. Undeniably, his extensive ambitions have been fueled by the overwhelming victory granted to him by the American electorate, which surpassed all projections.
This substantial victory has certainly triggered concerns within the global community, particularly given President Trump’s unconventional approach. He eschews traditional logic and norms, addressing international issues with convictions that shape the ideas and solutions he proposes. President Trump does not adhere to conventional problem-solving mechanisms. He exists in his own realm, dismissing analyses, the quality of advice, or the obviousness of logic and rationality, guided by a subjective belief in his capacity to unravel mysteries, surmount obstacles, and fill gaps. This confidence is bolstered by the formidable power wielded by the United States across various domains.
Furthermore, he introduces proposals to both allies and adversaries, proposals that frequently conflict with his role as a neutral mediator. He steadfastly maintains positions as remedies for the issues he negotiates, often with little regard for their legitimacy or legality. He remains determined to reduce the burdens shouldered by the United States in maintaining global stability, a stance that has raised apprehensions in Europe, NATO, and among allies in Asia.
Turning his focus to the Israeli-Arab conflict, he devises intricate solutions he deems viable, relying on American strength and his entrenched personal convictions. In his perspective, the endorsements from Bahrain, the Emirates, Sudan, and Morocco in the Abraham Initiatives validate his approach. Now, once again, he is resolute in advancing his role to secure an acceptable resolution with Israel and nations like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria, and the remaining Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.
President Trump undoubtedly senses that the present conditions offer a unique context for peaceful resolutions, distinct from prior attempts, granting a greater prospect of success. Multiple factors contribute to his optimism.
First: The Trump administration has undoubtedly monitored substantial transformations within the Arab world. The Assad regime in Syria has vanished, succeeded by a new administration open to initiatives that untangle the complexities inherited from its predecessor. Iraq has also undergone shifts in its political landscape concerning regional matters, fostering an adaptive environment in line with the peace efforts championed by President Trump. No significant opposition exists in the region to the pursuit of an agreeable resolution to the Palestinian issue.
Second: Events in recent months, particularly the Israeli offensive on Gaza, its targeting of Hamas, and its elimination of Hezbollah’s presence in southern Lebanon, have influenced regional dynamics.
Third: Israel has successfully neutralized the Iranian military presence in Syria, losing its key ally following the disappearance of the Assad regime and paving the way for moderate forces to align with the broader regional trend. As the Iranian presence dwindles in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, the prospects for peace solutions acceptable to Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq have heightened.
Fourth: President Trump is evidently focusing his aspirations on Saudi Arabia’s potential involvement in the Abraham Initiative. However, he must recognize the kingdom’s rationale for abstaining. Saudi Arabia has put forth a comprehensive proposal advocating the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza in exchange for collective recognition of Israel. This stance reflects the broader Arab position. Without a Palestinian state, the region will continue to grapple with instability, turmoil, extremist proliferation, and mounting terrorism.
Fifth: Emphasizing the role of the GCC countries in global security and economic stability, these nations shoulder the responsibility of supplying essential energy at reasonable prices. Their diplomacy is rooted in their understanding of their pivotal role in the global economy, a commodity the world cannot forego without incurring chaos and peace erosion. The GCC states also actively engage in global development efforts, championing economic, social, and educational initiatives in developing countries, reflecting their commitment to advancing collective goals.
Sixth: Persistent skepticism among Arab states, including the Gulf, surrounds President Trump’s commitment to the principles necessary for easing tensions in the occupied Palestinian territories. His position, marked by strong support for Israel, including endorsing the annexation of Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, remains indifferent to the objections from Arabs and others advocating for a balanced solution. Confidence in his support for Security Council resolutions and their implementation remains elusive.
Seventh: The transformation in the Arab region presently has reshaped the context of America’s involvement, witnessing increased engagement compared to Trump’s first presidency four years ago. Gulf-American relations have expanded and evolved from a phase of strength to one of strategic partnership, a reality President Trump is likely to leverage in pursuit of his objectives.
Eighth: For President Trump to succeed in his peace endeavors, he must focus his efforts on persuading Israel to accept the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza. Without a state that embodies Palestinian aspirations, peace will remain elusive, posing significant challenges to all initiatives. The absence of a Palestinian state continues to pose a formidable barrier, demanding renewed, earnest efforts to actualize the Palestinian people’s right to statehood.
Ninth: President Trump stands to achieve success if he recognizes the imperative of establishing a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank. Conversely, ignoring this necessity would undermine his prospects for resolution.
Abdullah Bishara
TRUMPISM: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES
By Abdulrahman Al-Rashed
Asharq Al-Awsat, London, February 6
Many assert that the words of Donald Trump, the returning American president, are mere bluster. In my view, Trump could be anything – either an empty sound bomb or a truly destructive force.
We are on the brink of four potentially extraordinary years that could either morph into our worst fears, leaving Palestinians without a land, or realize the dream of a Palestinian state. His policies might ignite a dangerous regional war with Iran or herald a new era of regional peace, putting an end to decades of Arab-Western conflicts and tensions with Iran. He could either catalyze regime falls and ensuing chaos or foster security and peace regionwide.
This is not an overstatement – Trump is undeniably unpredictable. Whether joking or serious, he cannot be ignored. Not even 100 days into his new tenure, he has already dismissed the FBI director, disrupted the US Agency for International Development’s operations, fired 10,000 of its employees, halted all American aid globally, withdrawn from the World Health Organization, and initiated the mass deportation of illegal immigrants, with military planes carrying them out of the US at an unprecedented pace. This has forced several Latin American presidents to accommodate them.
The Canadian prime minister has also scrambled to deploy about a quarter of a million soldiers and border guards to curb infiltration and smuggling, just as Mexico has done. Meanwhile, meetings are underway in Brussels, the European Union’s capital, to deliberate over Trump’s intentions to cut support for Ukraine and hike tariffs on European products.
If such actions don’t illustrate Trump’s character and management style, what lies ahead may be even more profound. Before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Washington, Trump lifted restrictions on the sale of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel – restrictions imposed by his predecessor, president Joe Biden – and announced measures aimed at preventing Iran from exporting its oil.
As we come to understand this American president, now more formidable than before, it’s essential to assess the issues he will address. Refusing to engage with him carries steep costs, and despite Trump’s repeated assurances of not resorting to military force against opponents, he can still inflict economic harm on those who dissent.
Trump wields two key weapons. The first is economic and financial. This includes raising tariffs – though fortunately, Arab exports to the US are minimal – or cutting aid. Arab nations receiving aid need to reorganize their affairs if they plan on noncooperation and should not expect alternative support from other Arab nations or international allies, as Trump is likely to penalize governments and international banks that back dissenting regimes against him.
The second weapon is political. Conflicts with Trump will be exploited by opposition forces like the Muslim Brotherhood, seeking to capitalize on the political climate. They will aim to incite public dissent against Trump and embarrass Arab governments with propaganda campaigns, while simultaneously maneuvering closer to the Trump administration for their own goals, much like their strategy in 2011.
The Trump administration faces two significant challenges: Iran and Palestine, with related crises branching out to include Yemen’s Houthi rebels, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq. Should Israel resolve to obliterate Iran’s nuclear capabilities, it must wait until Trump’s negotiation attempts – likely to commence soon – fail.
It wouldn’t be inconceivable for the Iranian leadership to cooperate with Trump, given the Islamic Republic’s substantial losses having seen its external power diminished by over half following the destruction of Hamas and Hezbollah capabilities and the downfall of the Assad regime.
The threat is compounded by Trump’s decision to reimpose the oil embargo on Iran and possibly upping the ante with the threat of an Israeli strike on its nuclear infrastructure, risking Iran’s loss of crucial negotiating leverage.
Of urgent concern is Trump’s project to depopulate Gaza, with more significant challenges anticipated.
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed
THE EXTENDED HAND HASN’T BEEN RECIPROCATED
By Marwan El Amine
Nida Al Watan, Lebanon, February 6
Following the steep cost Hezbollah bore in its recent war with Israel, alongside shifts in power dynamics and the emergence of regional and international dynamics that paved the way for the election of Joseph Aoun as president of the republic, the Lebanese people have the potential to unify.
Aoun’s inauguration speech underscored a pivot toward national commonalities. This address urged unity under the constitution’s umbrella and within a framework of state institutions, emphasizing that any loss suffered by one party affects all. In line with this, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s inauguration speech highlighted an “outstretched hand” approach, signaling a new political era rooted in partnership and understanding, which bolsters a holistic national interest.
However, this gesture of cooperation found no reciprocal response; instead, it faced a slew of actions, indicating a continued dominance and imposition mindset. Among these actions:
Firstly, the opposition attempted to mandate the reappointment of Prime Minister Najib Mikati. When this failed, MP Mohammad Raad issued a statement affirming the persisting use of threats and arrogance, marked by boycotting consultations with the prime minister-designate, a blatant departure from established principles and norms.
Secondly, there was a steadfast insistence on controlling the Finance Ministry, earmarking it for a candidate loyal to the opposition, sending a clear message that governance will continue under their sway, prioritizing their choices over the designated president and republic’s head, without regard for partnership and consensus principles.
Thirdly, given Hezbollah’s restricted capacity for military maneuvers south of the Litani River due to possible military repercussions, the group incited the so-called “residents” of the region to stage popular movements, placing the Lebanese army in a precarious position. This was a stark reminder to concerned parties that the group remains at the helm of southern security matters, either through its militias or resident mobilization, aiming to undermine state authority and weaken the army’s role.
Fourthly, beyond southern movements, Hezbollah orchestrated a provocative sectarian parade through Beirut’s streets, reinforcing its bullying approach and its posture of imposing its will on other community segments. This intimidating behavior mirrors itself in the gunfire salutes at member funerals, which starkly undermine state authority and signal dominance to other factions.
Fifthly, in a contentious judicial turn, a decision was made to close activist and thinker Lokman Slim’s assassination file – a move invoking questions about its legal and political ramifications and timing. This sends a pointed message to the regime, prime minister-designate, political forces, and Lebanese citizens that Hezbollah still exerts a hold over the judiciary and that the impunity policy remains untouched, allowing perpetrators to steer decisions and rulings that bury truth and justice.
While extending a hand is constructive, yielding to the terms of subjugation is an entirely different story. For such an initiative to be genuinely effective, it requires a receiving hand, not one that aims to twist and overpower it.
In this landscape, Lebanese citizens await the promises of the inauguration speech to materialize into concrete actions and the formation of a government reflecting their aspirations, rather than one acquiescing to the opposition’s dictates, particularly concerning the Finance Ministry and the monopolization of Shiite representation.
Marwan El Amine
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