HAMAS’ NARRATIVE FALLING APART

Increasing evidence reveals No deliberate starvation; No genocide; No freezing and No indiscriminate targeting.

By Andrew Fox

Is the mainstream media watching?

Now that there is a temporary ceasefire in Gaza, we are seeing the Hamas narrative fall apart before our eyes. I expected it to take a few months for the truth to come out, but it has only taken a few days. We have endured 15 months of screeching about war crimes, illegal targeting, disproportionality and genocide. Each one of these has unravelled in the blink of an eye. The IDF Spokesman’s unit must be feeling rather validated right now.

Let us examine the evidence emerging. Here is a snapshot run-through of the mounting proof to clear Israel of all the allegations against it.

Hospitals have been one item of controversy amongst many in this war. The IDF has been condemned for military action in or near them; Israel has claimed that Hamas uses hospitals as military locations, in violation of the Law of Armed Conflict. There are reams of evidence to support the latter position with a report on this coming later in the month to cover this in exhaustive depth. As the ceasefire was announced, we saw Hamas fighters assembling outside the Nasser hospital.

Not only hospitals; we have also seen footage of fighters emerging from the Mawasi humanitarian zone. Added to which, we now know that the freed hostages were at times held there, too. All of a sudden, the “100 air strikes” reported in Mawasi can be justified because Hamas militants were hiding there (I am sure the BBC will amend the linked article to reflect this). Incidentally, Hamas commander, Mohammed Deif, was killed as he hid amongst civilians in a humanitarian zone.

We have heard claims of starvation and freezing. The reality is rather well summed up by this popular but rather blunt meme:

Starving, freezing Gazans turn out to be well-fed, dressed in vests and with fresh haircuts. Of course, life displaced in a war zone will have been unpleasant, but none of the footage we have seen shows the victims of deliberate starvation, as alleged.

This is doubly rebutted by the footage coming from the Palestinian side of the Kerem Shalom crossing. N12 News reveals undelivered aid, rotting in the sun. COGAT figures throughout the war have shown that sufficient food has entered Gaza – over 3,000 calories, per person, per day (the World Health Organisation recommends 2,000-2,400 daily calories for an adult).

As I have suggested throughout the war, the issue of food is not with the supply from outside. Any hunger issues lay with the distribution of aid inside Gaza itself. This was not the responsibility of the IDF: it lay with humanitarian agencies. Any failure to feed Gazan citizens lies with them alone – and of course, Hamas – well-documented to have been seizing aid and using it as a lever of control over the population.

Since last summer, it has been reported that during the war, Gaza’s population has gone up, not down. As early as July, the charity Save The Children was reporting that some 50,000 babies had been born in Gaza, citing the UN Population Fund reporting a monthly birth rate of 5,522 babies. Gazan civilians themselves have now verified this.

Some genocide.

Other statistics released by Hamas themselves are also deeply revealing. Hamas propaganda outlet Middle East Eye, citing Palestinian authorities, reports that 100,000 tonnes of explosives were dropped by Israel over the course of the war. In the same article, they state the death toll as 47,107. This is a remarkable statistic to support Israel’s assertion that their campaign has been targeted, and took civilian protection measures into account.

By Hamas’s own figures, over two tonnes of explosives have been dropped for every fatality. This means one of two things: either the Israeli Air Force are the worst shots in the history of warfare; or, the areas where they have been dropping munitions have been largely empty of civilians.

And why were these areas mostly empty of civilians? Because the IDF took the unprecedented measure of evacuating the war zone before striking.

My forthcoming paper, Hiding in Plain Sight (hopefully out by the end of the month), evidences the ten ways in which Hamas has tried to use Gaza’s population as a human shield. That only 47,107 people have died as a result of 100,000 tonnes of munitions is a truly remarkable achievement. It shows the lengths the IDF has gone to, to protect civilian life. This is far in excess of their international humanitarian law obligations.

Nearly half the 47,107 dead are Hamas fighters. My report for the Henry Jackson Society, Questionable Counting, proved the likelihood of the IDF’s reported figures being accurate. In fact, what we did not publish is the statistical modelling we did to suggest the IDF were undercounting: we worked out it was more likely closer to 22,500 Hamas fatalities. However, we did not publish this as we did not feel it accurate enough. As an aside, this heavily assumption-based modelling did not stop the Lancet from publishing a paper based on similar stretched assumptions. See Mark Zlochin’s thread for a great takedown of the recent Lancet publication.

As bodies begin to be extracted from the rubble of Gaza, we see a curious phenomenon in the reporting: they are all men of fighting age.

The Hamas-run Gaza Ministry of Health provides us with more evidence to support the concept that Israel has been targeting militants. Just today, they claimed that 32,152 children had lost their fathers and 4,417 had lost their mothers. This statistic shows a huge imbalance towards men (who, if they are considered the parents of children under 18, will likely be predominantly in the category of “fighting age”). This is a ratio of fighting age men to women of over 7:1. Gaza’s percentage population of adult males before the war was only 26%. The percentage given today by Hamas? Nearly 88% male deaths. This does not suggest indiscriminate targeting.

Hamas’s own news networks are also starting to report the funerals of combatants:

Interestingly, this is higher than the male to female ratio listed on the official Hamas lists of fatalities, which sits at proportionally either 42%, 62% or 53% adult males, depending which reporting method you check (hospital lists, family notification, or judicial committee numbers) – again, suggesting that the IDF has not been bombing indiscriminately, especially when we take into account what is known of their Rules of Engagement and targeting procedures.

I have personally examined both.

I found them analogous to all the other professional armies I have worked with, as did General Sir John McColl, former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe. If today’s trend maps across to the broader non-parent population, it once again suggests that all might not be right with the accuracy of the Ministry of Health’s reporting over the last 12 months.

This is all circumstantial evidence, but it is certainly building a picture. Hamas has used hospitals and the humanitarian zone for cover. Having seen the disaster of rotting food on Gaza side of the border, aid agencies are revealed, at best, to be grossly incompetent.

No deliberate starvation; no genocide; no freezing; no indiscriminate targeting; and significant proportions of the dead being exclusively fighting-age men. The Palestinian narrative is falling apart: the bigger question is whether or not the world’s media will begin reporting fairly. I suspect the answer is no. We have seen this playbook before.

About the writer:

A veteran of three grueling tours of Afghanistan, Major Andrew Fox holds a Batchelor’s degree in Law & Politics, a Master’s in Military History & War Studies, and is currently studying for a PhD in History.

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