THE WAR WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT

With Israel’s northern settlements reduced to “ghost towns”, how long before daily skirmishes with Hezbollah escalate into a fully-fledged war?

By Rolene Marks

There is hardly a day that goes by without the ubiquitous beeping of incoming rockets or Unmanned Arial Vehicles (UAV) in Israel’s north. Israel’s northern border is under immense threat from Iranian sponsored proxy Hezbollah. While the world focuses attention on Israel’s military operations in Gaza following the atrocities committed by Hamas on 7 October, the north is heating up. Hezbollah started firing anti-tank missiles and rockets on Israeli homesteads and positions in the north on 8 October.

Israel has long anticipated that should war break out on one front, it will inevitably break out on others as well. Israel is not only fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in the north but is also dealing with increased tension in the West Bank, opportunistic Iranian attacks and the transfer of weapons from Syria, the Houthi threat in the Red Sea and rebels in Iraq firing projectiles at the Jewish state.

Hezbollah poses a significantly greater threat than Hamas. The Iranian proxy has unequivocally violated UN Resolution 1701, which clearly calls for Hezbollah to remain north of the Litani River. United Nations Interim Forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL) recently had their mandate extended – and yet have done nothing to rein in Hezbollah aggression.

Hezbollah is Hamas on steroids. Hezbollah’s equivalent of Hamas’s Nukba fighters known as the Radwan forces, are a lot more sophisticated and better trained and Hezbollah’s arsenal of rockets is estimated in excess of 160 000. These rockets, which are significantly more sophisticated than those fired by Hamas, have the entire state of Israel covered. It is a terrifying thought.

As the IDF evacuated southern communities in preparation for the military operation into Gaza, so northern communities evacuated as well. Towns and kibbutzim on the border are ghost towns and the impact of this on farms and the regional economy has been massive. Images coming in from Kiryat Shmoneh and Katzrin show massive destruction to property and the northern skyline is bright red and orange from fires. Civilians and soldiers killed from rockets and anti-Tank missiles – are facts the global community and media are silent about.

Lebanese residents in the south of the country have also been evacuated – and there an estimated 91,000 have fled their homes.

Hezbollah have fired thousands of rockets at Israeli positions, causing a massive amount of damage to hundreds of buildings and homes. They have caused widespread destruction on a wine farm and to chicken coops and set of massive fires across thousands of dunams of land.  Hezbollah have also fired towards IDF military positions, and Ziv Medical Center in the northern Galilee city of Safed, sustained a direct hit.

To date there have been no condemnations from the international community – but diplomatic efforts are underway to try prevent a widespread war from breaking out. Israel’s Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant has repeatedly warned Hezbollah not to test the Jewish state:

 “The noses of our fighter jets are pointed north”.

Hezbollah is recognized as a terror organization by several countries and has been described as a “state within a state” having representation in the Lebanese government.

Najib Mikati, Prime Minister of the interim government in Lebanon, said the Lebanese government would continue working for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the return the south Lebanese residents to their towns. He added that he was certain the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip would include the countries of the region and they would have “long-term stability and peace.”

Hezbollah is a proxy of Iran and are unlikely to take directive from the interim government. In response to escalating attacks on Israeli sovereign territory, Israel is striking Hezbollah targets, some as far into Lebanese territory as Baalbek, 265 km from the border.

Despite rumoured cautions from Iran for Hezbollah not to enter into a full-scale war with Israel, there is growing concern that Israel will inevitably have to enter the south of Lebanon in order to push Hezbollah north of the Litani River in compliance with UN Resolution 1701. Israel wants quiet on its northern border and for residents to return to their homes. I am sure that Lebanese civilians want the same for their residents of the south. Let us hope Hezbollah want that as well but emboldened by Hamas invasion of Israel on 7 October and their sworn solidarity with their ideological brothers, it seems less likely by the day.

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