Two Arab writers opining on Middle East issues, address:
- the impact of the upcoming US elections might have on bringing
about a ceasefire in Gaza - the “true objectives” behind Israel’s war with Hamas.
(Translation from the Arabic by Asaf Zilberfarb)
US ELECTIONS AND A CEASEFIRE IN GAZA
By Ahmed Abdel-Tawwab
Ahram, Egypt
February 2nd 2024
Israel is keenly aware that time is not on its side given various factors with the most critical being the approaching climax of the US presidential campaign. Israeli leaders recognize the unique
demands of these elections, with the reelected president historically seeking to defuse contentious issues amid polarized internal opinions and increasing criticism. President Joe Biden,
who is no exception to this trend, is perhaps even more compelled to adhere to it. Gaza stands as a key priority among the fronts he will seek to pacify without deviating from his unwavering support for Israel. However, amid the elections, public outrage over alleged Israeli war crimes and the US administration’s consistent backing of Israel has created a vulnerability ripe for exploitation by Biden’s rival, Donald Trump.
Signs of the Biden administration’s bid to ease tensions in Gaza have begun to surface, with reports suggesting an impending agreement between Hamas and Israel on fundamental points of contention. This potential agreement could see the release of Israeli prisoners by Hamas in exchange for the liberation of a significant number of Palestinian detainees by Israel. Negotiations continue on the duration of the ceasefire, with Hamas aiming for a longer period, while Israel is resistant to anything beyond a few months. While these reports could be deliberate leaks to gauge reactions, the current climate appears conducive to such a proposal. The suffering in Gaza and its impact on Hamas’s decision-making, coupled with an opportunity for Israel to manage its military setbacks, present a compelling case for all involved parties.
– Ahmed Abdel-Tawwab
WHAT ARE THE TRUE OBJECTIVES BEHIND THE WAR?
By Sami Abdullatif Al-Nisf
Annahar, Kuwait
February 2nd 2024
Since the outset of the ongoing Gaza war, the focus has been on deciphering the true intentions behind the conflict and whether the stated aim of eliminating Hamas truly represents Israel’s
underlying objective. It has become increasingly apparent that the conventional approach of seeking victory through direct confrontation may not be feasible, given the nature of the adversary. There is a recognition that Hamas cannot be vanquished by conventional
military means, which leads to contemplating the genuine purpose of the war. Amid this contemplation, a disturbing prospect arises: the notion of an undisclosed and enduring goal emerging from the conflict – the permanent desolation of Gaza without any prospect
of rehabilitation, essentially consigning it to a state of perpetual ruin and decay.
The prospect of Gaza being reduced to a dilapidated territory devoid of any possibility for growth or recovery appears increasingly plausible. The wider context of conflict and
displacement within the Arab world further compounds this distressing outlook. The absence of basic amenities and infrastructure, coupled with the disarray and suffering of its
inhabitants, portends a future bereft of progress or prosperity, amplifying the sense of despair and hopelessness.
This ominous trajectory is reinforced by reports indicating reluctance among
numerous nations to participate in the reconstruction of Gaza, citing concerns that any efforts to rebuild would only be undone by future hostilities. Compounding this, the resistance to the
implementation of a neutral Arab or international authority to prevent further conflict instills a sense of futility in the prospect of rehabilitation. Moreover, the current and anticipated plight of the people of Gaza is poised to push them toward eventual acquiescence to the notion of relocation, whether to neighboring or distant countries, effectively fulfilling a long-term, albeit
insidious, objective of the conflict. Notably, Israel has unequivocally declared its intention to withhold essential resources such as electricity, water, and financial support from
Gaza in the future. Furthermore, there are indications of intent to obstruct employment opportunities for Gazans within Israel, exacerbating the deprivation faced by the region. Additionally, the potential reduction of American aid, particularly to UNRWA, which
supports a significant portion of Gaza’s populace, further exacerbates the precarious situation.
In conclusion, contemplation of the full spectrum of potential outcomes is essential to guard against the unanticipated and ensure preparedness in the face of future uncertainties, a prudent
approach given historical precedents.
– Sami Abdullatif Al-Nisf
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