When it comes to self-preservation, they will lie at every turn and manipulate even the Dealmaker-in-Chief.

By Marziyeh Amirizadeh

We’ve been hearing for weeks, even months from the White House that Islamic Republic of Iran was about to sign a deal. True or not, for some reason President Trump‘s most recent statements have been taken more seriously. The stock market is up, oil prices are down and some sort of a deal may indeed be announced imminently.

As I read the terms of the proposed deal, whether true or not, my heart breaks because the outcome of the deal will be deadly. There are truly no good terms of the deal being reported, but as much as the terms are bad, the deadliest part is the deal itself.

Unfortunately, any deal will be dead on arrival.

I spent most of my life living under the Islamic Republic, and most of my last year in Iran, in Tehran‘s notorious Evin Prison under threat of a death penalty and being executed at any moment. My “crime?” Converting to Christianity.  Not very enlightened to say the least from a regime in control of the lives of 90 million Iranians, and threatening hundreds of millions more. As much as they tried to force me to deny my faith, I would not bend. That is how you make a deal with the Islamists, not by negotiating. By defeating them. Today I am blessed to live freely in the United States and proudly as an American citizen. I celebrate the freedom in America for which 90 million Iranians have sacrificed so much, only to be shot down literally by the evil and brutal Islamist regime.

As nice as it sounds, that the Islamic Republic regime may commit on paper to give up all their nuclear material and never have nuclear weapons, having lived under the regime and suffered its misogyny, seeing my friends and loved ones, including my husband, tortured and executed, I know that no deal they put their name to will ever be honored. I know that before the ink dries, they will be plotting their next move with the ultimate goal to hasten their extremist Islamic takeover of the world, the destruction of the United States, Israel, and the West – from outside and from within. I know that they will dig their nuclear facilities deeper under the vast Iranian mountain ranges to conceal their intentions, and the ability to get to the weapons themselves.

FLAW NO.1

While President Trump may indeed be the master of the deal, I know no deal they sign will ever be honored. That is the first deadly flaw of the deal: to think that these are rational actors and approach any deal in a way that is honorable or sincere is mistaken.

When it comes to self-preservation, the only goal is to do anything necessary, even signing a deal which makes it seem like they are abandoning their decades-long fantasy of having nuclear weapons. When it comes to self-preservation, they will lie at every turn and manipulate even the Dealmaker-in-Chief.

But mark my words, with a deal like this, in my lifetime, they will be back in business so that a future U.S. president will have to deal with the consequences of this deal, and an Islamic Republic that is either closer to achieving nuclear weapons than it has ever been, or will have actually done so. It should frighten us all!

FLAW NO. 2

The other deadly flaw of the deal is the abandonment of the Iranian people. In January of this year, the Islamic Republic regime executed as many as 50,000-60,000 Iranians in cold blood, in just two days. These were not foreign enemies, but Iranian citizens simply protesting for change, for freedom, to live, and have a future not under the heel of Islamic extremists who hijacked the country and who have been the singular source of the greatest terror network around the world for nearly half a century.

Making matters worse, President Trump actually gave Iranians hope when he sent a message encouraging the Iranian protesters to take to the streets and take over the institutions of the regime, stating “help is on the way.”

Unfortunately, that help never came even during the 40 days of joint American and Israeli attacks on the regime, weakening it, but not bringing it down. Make no mistake, the only deal that can be made is unilateral surrender, and the elimination of the regime. Anything short of that will continue the 47-year suffering of the Iranian people for generations to come.  It will mean the regime can act with a free hand to execute tens of thousands at one time, or arrest, torture, and execute tens of thousands more, one by one, out of the public eye.

It will mean that when they arrest women like my former cell mate and best friend, Shirin Alam Hooli, before executing them they will torture them brutally and rape them because under their perverted Islam, it is unjust to execute a virgin. So, they seek their justice through the worst form of misogynistic, torture, and dehumanization.

I weep for the current generation which had hope and suffered so much these past several months and decades. I weep for future generations of Iranians, who will grow up as I did, with brothers becoming masters over their sisters, corrupting the thought of young people and their attitudes that will shape their lives unnaturally for generations to come.

FLAW NO.3

A third deadly flaw of the deal relates to Israel and the West. A year ago, I had the privilege of writing a thank you note to pilots who carried out the strike on Evin Prison administrative buildings where I was incarcerated. I’ve had the opportunity to speak to Israeli soldiers and civilians many times and apologize for their suffering at the hands of the regime that hijacked my beautiful country of birth. If there are any people in the world who understand and have experienced the suffering of decades of Islamic Republic terrorism outside of Iran more than anyone, it is the people of Israel, who simply pray to live in peace. But as much as generations of Iranians have suffered, also generations of Israelis have suffered. I have met them, I have prayed with and for them, and I weep that future generations will suffer the same as their parents and grandparents have.

I pray that President Trump will not be fooled, that there will be no deal short of complete surrender and an end of the Islamic Republic. Only that can ensure peace, that Iran can rejoin the family of nations, and that the outcome will not be decades more of suffering at the hands of an Islamic death cult.

About the writer:

Marziyeh (Marzi) Amirizadeh, the founder and president of www.newpersia.org, an author, public speaker, and activist. She has written two books “Captive in Iran,” and “A Love Journey with God” which are available on www.marzisjourney.com. She is an Iranian American who immigrated to the US after being sentenced to death by hanging in Iran for the crime of converting to Christianity. She endured months of mental and physical hardships and intense interrogation in Evin prison- one of the most brutal prisons in the world.

While the mission of Lay of the Land (LotL) is to provide a wide and diverse perspective of affairs in Israel, the Middle East and the Jewish world, the opinions, beliefs and viewpoints expressed by its various writers are not necessarily ones of the owners and management of LOTL but of the writers themselves.  LotL endeavours to the best of its ability to credit the use of all known photographs to the photographer and/or owner of such photographs (0&EO).

How democratically elected leaders are systematically undermining democracy.

By Neville Berman

“Democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.” Winston Churchill

Elections are an essential part of democracy, but having elections does not mean that the country is democratic. Let us look at some examples of elections around the world.

Nothing beats the parliamentary elections in North Korea. The media reported that 99.93 % of the electorate voted. 100% of those who voted, reaffirmed Kim Jong Un as their leader. What an amazingly free and fair election result.

President Hafez al-Assad and his son Bashar al-Assad consistently received approval ratings of between 95 – 98% of the votes. The true position became absolutely clear in December 2024 when Bashar al-Assad was forced to flee to Russia where he was granted asylum.

President Muammar Gaddafi of Libya said that all his people loved him. Shortly thereafter he was forced to flee. He was found hiding in a ditch and was immediately executed.  Obviously not all his people loved him.

Believe it or not, elections were actually held in Afghanistan. Only men over the age of 18 were allowed to vote. An American organization decided to attend the election in order to report if the elections were free and fair.  The authorities in Afghanistan refused to allow the organization to be present inside the actual area where voting was going to take place.  At one polling station, they stood outside for the entire time that the polling station was open. They counted less than 800 people who came to vote. The official count showed that over 15,000 votes were cast at the polling station. Obviously, elections mean different things in different parts of the world.   

Haiti is one of the poorest countries in the world. About a decade ago a senior Haiti official had a meeting with the Assistant American Secretary of State in Washington D.C. He asked what America would like to see happen in Haiti. The answer was that America would like to see free and fair elections in which all citizens over the age of 18 are allowed to vote. The official from Haiti agreed that this was essential. He then asked:

“After the vote, who do you want us to announce as the winner.”

Even the Islamic Republic of Iran has elections. Only candidates approved by the Iranian Guardian Council are allowed to become candidates. What a farce. No wonder that in 2024, less than 40% of those eligible to vote, actually voted. Clearly there is huge dissatisfaction at the way the country is governed. The amazing thing about the elections is the speed in which tens of millions of votes are counted. The results of the election are announced within hours of the closing of voting. It seems plausible that the results could be announced even before the voting started.   

Every Israeli citizen irrespective of race religion or gender who is over the age of 18, has the right to vote in Israeli parliamentary elections. Israel claims to be the sole democracy in the Middle East. In actual fact, no Israeli political party has ever won a majority of 61 seats out of the 120 seats in the Knesset. What this means is that after every election, a coalition government has to be formed. The price demanded by the smaller parties to join the coalition is normally out of all proportion to the amount of support that they received in the election. Bribery, corruption and extortion are the correct names for what takes place. New ministries with huge budgets are created to satisfy the egos of political hacks who are neither qualified nor experienced enough to handle. In the end a coalition government is formed that costs billions of shekels from the coffers of the country. The present Israeli government is composed of five political parties. The Israeli coalition government is in reality a ‘’reverse democracy” as it is not based on the wishes of the party that won the most votes, but on the demands and policies of the minority parties that agreed to join the coalition provided the price paid to them was sufficient. This arrangement ensures that someone becomes prime minister by manipulation.  Dan Bielski, a political commentator in Israel summed up the position succinctly when he stated that “Israeli politicians can commit suicide by jumping from their egos to their IQ’s.” 

Let us now look at how democratically elected leaders of countries have systematically turned their countries into autocracies.  Although the sequence of what takes place may differ from country to country, and some events may not occur, the playbook of how this is done is basically the same all over the world. It usually starts with the election of a leader, who has delusional views that only he can lead the country to recover past greatness, and lead the country to new heights.

Once elected, he immediately starts by assuming greater executive power than the law intended. The separation of powers between and legislative, judicial and executive are slowly but systematically dismantled. People perceived as possibly posing a threat to his leadership such as the top leadership of the military and security forces are removed from their positions of power. Control of the press and TV stations by the government is the next goal.  A crackdown on the liberal press and TV channels that the leader believes are acting against the wishes of the majority of the electorate is implemented. If the criticism continues, the newspapers and TV channels are closed down. The independence of the judiciary, that may rule against the government, is one of the things that elected officials cannot stand. At some point in time an attempt is made to change the way that judges are selected and appointed. In some countries, the entire judicial system is overhauled by arresting and holding judges in prison for months without any charges being filed. The civil service is always systematically subverted. This is done by retiring or firing civil servants whose views do not appear to be in line with government policy. Opposition candidates are then prevented from running in elections. This can happen because of “accidents”, or by trumped up legal charges against them. At this stage the judges in the courts understand that their own position is dependent on handing down prison sentences on those accused of committing certain crimes. Once in prison the opposition candidate is charged with additional crimes such as tax evasion and embezzlement.  The end result is always long-term imprisonment or the mysterious death of the prisoner while in jail.  

The Prime Minister or President always takes credit for everything positive that has occurred, even if he had nothing to do with anything that caused the positive situation. Anything negative that has occurred, is either blamed on the previous government, or the blame is shifted to external forces and enemies.  This gives the government an excuse to massively increase the defense budget. This is funded by deficit enlargement. While billions of dollars of government contracts are awarded to well-connected companies, the leader of the country somehow becomes a multi-millionaire or a billionaire. No explanation is given as to how he accumulated his new wealth. At some point during the above process, the constitution of the country is changed to allow the President or Prime Minister to rule for life.

Waging war is another way that leaders of countries hope to gain support. In 1982, Margaret Thatcher became immensely more popular by waging war against the Argentinian takeover of the Falkland Islands. The Falkland Islands are situated nearly 12,900 kilometers from Britain, and have almost zero strategic value. Nevertheless, Thatcher went to war to regain control of the islands. A fleet of Royal Navy ships were dispatched to the Falklands. In total six British ships were sunk including the HMS Sheffield, which was sunk by an Exocet missile. Dozens of aircraft and 24 helicopters never made it back to Britain. 649 Argentinian soldiers and 3 Falklanders were killed in the war. The cost of the war in today’s terms was over a billion sterling and 255 members of the British armed forces were killed.  Before the war, the British Prime Minister was behind in the polls. After regaining the Falkland Islands, the British press went absolutely overboard in praising the “Iron Lady”. Margaret Thatcher won the next election by a landslide. The lesson of going to war and winning in the election that follows has been noted by several of today’s leaders. 

Israel is not even close to the level of autocracy or dictatorship found in Russia, China, Turkey, North Korea, Afghanistan, and most Middle Eastern countries ruled by military dictatorships or royal families. However, Israel has fulfilled several of the steps outlined above that result in democracy moving towards autocracy. This is a slippery slope that is difficult to reverse.

The coming Israeli election in October, will be an opportunity for the electorate in Israel, to do what is necessary to ensure that the slippery slope is firmly reversed. Bibi Netanyahu has used every trick in the book to remain in power, and he is prepared to use any means necessary to continue to be the prime minister. The coming election is going to be brutal and unethical. The present political leadership has failed to bring unity to the country. It needs to be replaced. 

About the writer:

Accountant Neville Berman had an illustrious sporting career in South Africa, being twice awarded the South African State Presidents Award for Sport and was a three times winner of the South African Maccabi Sportsman of the Year Award.  In 1978 he immigrated to the USA  to coach the United States men’s field hockey team, whereafter, in 1981 he immigrated to Israel where he practiced as an accountant and then for 20 years was the Admin Manager at the American International School in Even Yehuda, Israel.  He is married with two children and one granddaughter.

While the mission of Lay of the Land (LotL) is to provide a wide and diverse perspective of affairs in Israel, the Middle East and the Jewish world, the opinions, beliefs and viewpoints expressed by its various writers are not necessarily ones of the owners and management of LOTL but of the writers themselves.  LotL endeavours to the best of its ability to credit the use of all known photographs to the photographer and/or owner of such photographs (0&EO).

Historically the midterm elections result in a loss of seats by the ruling party in the House of Representatives and a small change in the makeup of the Senate.

By Neville Berman

The United States President is elected for a four-year term of office. Half way through this 4-year period,  an election takes place that is known as the midterm elections. The next midterm elections are due to take place on November 3, 2026. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives, and 1/3 of the Senate seats are up for re-election.

The United States Congress is the legislative body of the federal government of the United States. It is made up of an upper body known as the Senate, and a lower body known as the House of Representatives. Members of the House of Representatives are elected for 2-year terms and members of the Senate are elected for 6-year terms. There are 100 members of the Senate, with each of the 50 States electing 2 senators irrespective of the population or size of each state. In the event of a tie in a Senate vote, the vice president has an additional vote in the Senate There are 435 members of Congress elected by electoral districts in each state.

The US House of Representatives is the body that proposes federal laws. The Senate then needs to approve the laws passed by the House. Finally, the President needs to sign the bill before the bill becomes federal law. If the President chooses to veto the bill, in most cases Congress can then vote to override the veto and the bill then becomes federal law.

There have been 20 US midterm elections since the end of the Second World War. In 10 of these elections, the President was a Democrat, and in an equal number the President was a Republican. Let us look back at what happened in the first of these 20 midterm elections and see if there is any resemblance to the next midterm election.  

In November 1944, Franklin Delano Roosevelt was elected for an unprecedented fourth term of office as President. His vice president was Harry S Truman. They were sworn into office in January 1945. Eighty-two days after the inauguration, President Roosevelt died and Truman was sworn in as the 37^th President of the United States. He was the 7^th Vice President to become President due to the death of the President while in office. Truman was a poor farmer from Missouri, who never went to university, and never ran a successful business. He was now the President of the most powerful country in the world. On his desk, he placed a sign that read “The buck stops here”.  Truman took this to heart. He took decisions that changed the world. 

Less than one month after Truman became President, Nazi Germany surrendered unconditionally. However, the War in the Pacific was far from over. In order to shorten the war and save American lives, Truman signed an order authorizing the use of atomic bombs in the war against Japan.

On August 6, 1945 the first atomic bomb named Little Boy, was dropped on Hiroshima. Three days later the second atomic bomb, named Fat Man, was dropped on Nagasaki. Between 150,000 and 246,000 people were killed, almost all of whom were civilians.

Six days later, Emperor Hirohito addressed the nation on radio. He could not bring himself to use the word ‘surrender’. Instead, he said that Japan had agreed to an American proposal. Everyone understood that Japan had surrendered.

On September 2, 1945 the formal signing of Japanese unconditional surrender took place aboard the USS Missouri. The Second World War was finally over.

Having won the war, one would imagine that Americans would overwhelmingly vote to support the ruling Democratic Party in the midterm elections the following year. So, what happened?

During the war wages in America were frozen and price controls were instituted. With the war over, all the big military contracts were cancelled, and at the same time the labour unions were demanding a 30% increase in salaries. Millions of workers were laid off. The steelworkers’ union went on strike. Hundreds of factories including General Motors were closed due to labour strikes. At the same time millions of soldiers were returning and could not find jobs. Three weeks before the 1946 midterm elections the meat workers went on strike. People were despondent and fed up with the government. In the 1946 midterm elections the Republican party ran on the slogan “Had enough”.” The slogan resonated with the electorate. The Republicans won in a landslide and gained control of both the Senate and the House. The Democrats lost 55 seats in the House and 12 seats in the Senate.

At present, the Republicans have 218 seats in the House and the Democrats have 215 seats. The Republicans thus have a slender 3 seat majority in the House.  Two members of the House resigned in April and their seats are presently vacant.

In 80% of the last 20 midterm elections the ruling party has lost control of the House of Representatives. The average number of seats in the House lost when Democrats were in power in the last 20 midterm elections is 27. In the case where the Republicans were in power, the average number of seats lost in  the House over the last 20 midterm elections is 22. If this trend continues, the Republicans will lose control of the House in the next midterm elections.

In the Senate, the Republicans presently have a 53 to 47 advantage. Included in the 47 are 2 independents who caucus with the Democrats. In 60% of the midterm elections since 1946, the ruling party has retained control of the Senate with a reduced majority, and in 40% of the elections, the ruling party lost control of the Senate. Republicans under Eisenhower, Ford and Reagan all lost control of the Senate in the midterm elections. Based on the data of the past 20 midterm elections, there is a statistical likelihood that the electorate will again demonstrate that they have had enough and want change. If the past is any indication of what will happen, the Republican Party will in all likelihood lose their majority in the House. and will either have a reduced majority in the Senate, or will lose control of the Senate in the next midterm elections.  

In 1947, the 22nd Amendment of the American Constitution was passed.  The amendment limited the Presidency to a maximum of two terms of four years each. As President Trump is now in his second term in office, he cannot stand again in the next Presidential election due to take place in November 2028.

No matter what the actual outcome of the next midterm election will be, barring unforeseen circumstances, Trump will remain President until 2028. He will probably govern by signing more Presidential Decrees. America is indispensable in its role as a superpower and any weakening of American resolve will have a devastating effect on what happens in the future. The coming midterm elections will provide the first clue as to what can be expected after Trump leaves office.  The situation does not augur well for a peaceful and prosperous future for the Middle East or for anywhere else.

*Feature photo: Capitol Hill. The western front of the United States Capitol, Washington DC. (Phoyo: Public Domain)

About the writer:

Accountant Neville Berman had an illustrious sporting career in South Africa, being twice awarded the South African State Presidents Award for Sport and was a three times winner of the South African Maccabi Sportsman of the Year Award.  In 1978 he immigrated to the USA  to coach the United States men’s field hockey team, whereafter, in 1981 he immigrated to Israel where he practiced as an accountant and then for 20 years was the Admin Manager at the American International School in Even Yehuda, Israel.  He is married with two children and one granddaughter.

While the mission of Lay of the Land (LotL) is to provide a wide and diverse perspective of affairs in Israel, the Middle East and the Jewish world, the opinions, beliefs and viewpoints expressed by its various writers are not necessarily ones of the owners and management of LOTL but of the writers themselves.  LotL endeavours to the best of its ability to credit the use of all known photographs to the photographer and/or owner of such photographs (0&EO).