Reichman University’s Counter Terrorism Conference offered insights on identifying threats and emerging trends.
By David E. Kaplan
Attending the ICT25 Shabtai Shavit World Summit on Counter-Terrorism at Reichman University on September 18, two words were projected in bold on the Carol and Joey Low Lecture Hall screen during a 2-hour workshop titled:
GLOBAL TERRORISM: TRENDS and THREATS
The two words were ‘STOCHASTIC TERRORISM’.
Every attendee at this World Summit understood the second word only too well for after all that is why they were there and many of whom had travelled from across the world to attend – but I, like many I suspect, was clueless as to the meaning of the word preceding it – “Stochastic”. People clicked their cellphone cameras to record the screen’s image to later pursue further research indicating that I was far from alone in my ignorance. At the conclusion of the workshop following presentations by five panelists and a moderator – all academicians in the field of Counter-Terrorism – we were better informed.
We were also terrified!
Although now understanding the nature and scope of the beast – Stochastic Terrorism – what we did not understand was how the ramifications of “this under-examined” yet “growing threat to public security” were to be addressed. At stake were the lives of Jews around the world!
I am writing this article following the news on the lethal single terrorist attack on the synagogue in Manchester and the first thing that came to mind in understanding the nature of this antisemitic atrocity was the Summit workshop and the two words – Stochastic Terrorism. While some in the UK were quick to respond that “We were surprised,” they should not have been with antisemitic incidents in the UK having increased by 113% since October 7, 2023.
Most people are generally familiar with the major terrorist organizations like ISIS and Al Quada, and closer to home for Israelis – Hezbollah, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). All are identifiable; they have a comprehensible political structure led by high-profile leaders who are reported on in the media. These organizations have a chain of command where orders are given and executed by foot soldiers. But what of the increasing terrorist menace of the ‘lone wolf’, emerging fanatics who are not members of any terrorist organizations, receive no funding that could be traced and are neither inspired nor directly instructed by obvious terrorist leaders?
Western democracies today face a growing threat from these lone wolf attackers like the Manchester synagogue terrorist – Jihad Al-Shamie – who operate independently and act with little to no external support. As far as the Greater Manchester Police (GMP) knew, Al-Shamie, a 35-year-old British citizen of Syrian descent, did not appear to be known to counter-terrorism police.
A Mr. Haliwell, a nearby 72-year-old neighbor of the terrorist’s family home, said the property used to be on his window-cleaning round and he knew the wider family “a little,” saying they were “really nice people…..I was astonished, I was shocked,” and recalled the synagogue attacker in his younger days as someone whose name he did not know but “…was just a straightforward, ordinary lad, nothing would stand out to make you think he was ….”
According to the March 2025 GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX, 93% of fatal terrorist attacks in the West over the last five years have been carried out by ‘lone wolf’ actors.
How are they radicalized and driven to commit mass murder?
Apparently easy in this “Radicalization in the Digital Age”, another of the World Summit on Counter Terrorism’s presentations, where the sources of lethal influence are often virtually untouchable – they might not even be aware of the dangerous impact they are having. Instead of charismatic terrorist leaders or imams in mosques, the wannabe terrorist or prospective ‘lone wolf’ could be inspired or malevolently motivated by:
– TV news network personalities
– professors and intellectuals at prestigious universities and think tanks
– movie stars, fashion models and rockstars
– politicians and even respected statesmen.
All the above, whether they are aware or not of the lethal influence and impact they have, enjoy protection or “plausible deniability” because of their respected positions.
After all, who could accuse the following:
- Ireland’s Dáil Éireann passing a motion stating that “genocide is being perpetrated before our eyes by Israel in Gaza“.
- Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani saying that, while Israel has targeted civilians during the war in Gaza, “genocide is something else”
- Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong saying that “Israel will be judged in the international courts”, implying genocide
- Brazil’s President Lula da Silva condemning Israel’s actions as genocide, saying: “What’s happening in the Gaza Strip with the Palestinian people hasn’t happened at any other moment in history. Actually, it has happened: when Hitler decided to kill the Jews.”
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney seemingly agreeing with a protester who said there was “a genocide happening in Palestine”
- Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez calling Israel a “genocidal state”
- Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin accusing Israel of carrying out a “massacre” in Gaza marking one of the harshest criticisms to date from the Holy See and a sharp deviation from an institution known for its cautious and diplomatic tone.
All these public utterances by these respected world leaders can be understood within the definition of Stochastic Terrorism, which is “the public demonization of a group or individual”, such as today, Israelis or Jews, “through mass communication, which incites statistically probable but individually unpredictable violent acts against the target.”
Since October 7, 2023, Jews have been the “target” of these “unpredictable violent acts” across North America, the UK and Europe.
The rhetoric as defined by “Stochastic Terrorism” is “often indirect, vague, or uses coded language, allowing the instigator to plausibly disclaim responsibility for the resulting lone wolf acts of violence.” If people are hearing from their political leaders and popular news networks or reading on protest banners and placards that Israelis – and by association Jews – are perpetrating “genocide”, then Jews become in the general public’s mindset a legitimate target for vilification, ridicule, ostracization, vandalism, harassment, hate speech, social exclusion and physical assault. For some, they become a target for extermination and these ‘some’ may emerge as ‘lone wolf’ actors. Who can then say who directly was responsible for their racialization towards extremism – the Spanish or Canadian prime misters or the Vatican?
In May 2025, the man who shot dead outside the city’s Jewish Museum Yaron Lishinsky and Sarah Milgram, a couple employed at the Israeli Embassy in Washington, did not belong to any terrorist organization. So too the 45-year-old Egyptian national who threw flammable liquid and Molotov cocktails at participants in a weekly rally calling for the release of Israeli hostages in Boulder, when 82-year-old Karen Diamond was killed and eight others injured.
One of the most disturbing aspects of modern ‘lone wolf’ terrorism is the rapid speed at which radicalization occurs. A report compiled by CAM’s Antisemitism Research Center (ARC) in partnership with the social media analytics firm Cyabra, reveals that in 2002, it took “an average of 16 months for an individual to move from exposure to extremist material to executing an attack.” By 2015, this period had shrunk by over 40%. Today, in some cases, radicalization happens in mere weeks.
As described by leading scholars, ‘stochastic terrorism’ involves “the use of mass media to provoke random acts of ideologically motivated violence that are statistically predictable but individually unpredictable.” (The age of lone wolf terrorism. Columbia University Press).
The concept highlights how persistent, hostile political rhetoric – as is occurring every day and all day against Israel – can increase the likelihood of ideological violence against Jews anywhere in the world. Jews living in cities across the globe once considered “safe zones” are now revaluating their futures. For British Jews, the Manchester synagogue attack was a wake-up call. Across the UK in the now post-Manchester era, Jews will be feeling vulnerable, exposed and targets for antisemitic extremism. Rabbi, physician and a former member of the community who today lives in Israel Jonathan Lieberman writes in The Jerusalem Post (Oct.6,2025):
“Enough is enough. We will take our brains, our assets, our businesses and our children to a place where synagogues are not on the front line, where being openly Jewish is not a life-risking activity.”
How can it be that in the UK, a country globally respected as a beacon of democracy that celebrates diversity, Lieberman asks, “Maybe Britain wants its Jews to leave, I don’t know.”
What Jews do know that wherever they are during this crazed hyped-up antisemitic post-October 7 era, if they are “being openly Jewish” they are potential moving targets.
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