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A PESSIMISTIC PRESCIENCE

Willing to take, but not to give – have the ultra-Orthodox in a post October 7 world overplayed their hand?

By Stephen Schulman

Living in Israel in these particularly troubled and turbulent times, and after encountering a certain photograph in the newspaper, my thoughts were inexorably drawn back to the contents of an article that appeared some years ago, long before the October 7th massacre, in the weekend magazine of a Hebrew daily.

The article was penned by an Israeli journalist who had travelled to England and interviewed the chief  Hamas ideologue who was then residing there. He was most cordially received by this punctilious and affable gentleman who then set out to calmly, patiently and methodically explain his genocidal terrorist organization’s long-term master plan for the destruction of Israel. “Look,” he said, “We follow your media very closely and are aware of what is constantly transpiring within your country. We see a house divided. Many sectors exist, each pursuing their own interests, often inimical to the others and competing to attain as much as possible at the expense of the state. You are becoming a weakened country and in order to survive will have to continually make concessions to us. Eventually, when we dominate and control, you Jews will either have to leave and return from whence you came or be pushed into the sea.”

A chilling observation with an ominous ending. Nevertheless, a photograph taken during an anti-conscription protest of the Haredim (ultra-Orthodox) sector, brings some hard truths home. The picture shows a Haredi protester holding a commercially printed banner about two meters in length that contains two pictures each with their own captions. The first one is of a crematorium in an extermination camp and the second one is of the identical picture with the caption:

We will not send our children to the crematoria of the IDF.” (Israel Defense Force)

Anti-conscription demonstrations by the Haredi with their panoply of scurrilous banners and placards, take place regularly, often turning violent with chants of: “We will die rather than serve in the army,” and they, unfortunately, have become so part and parcel of our daily lives that we have grown accustomed to them. Nevertheless, I was shocked to my core for here was a poster so vicious, and so callous that it defiles and desecrates the memory of the martyrs of the Holocaust. For a Jew to equate serving in the Israeli army with burning in the ovens of the Nazi death camps, reveals the unfathomable depths of blind hatred that exist within a sector comprising a present 14% of the population – and that for all extents and purposes has become a state within a state.

A Bridge too Far. Manning the Chords Bridge at the entrance to Jerusalem, ultra-orthodox men have drawn battle lines that is dividing the nation.(Photo: AP Photo/Leo Correa)

This inner state of the ultra-Orthodox Haredim with its different sectors and sects has evolved, not overnight, nor despite, but with the acquiescence, complicity, and nurturing of the liberal secular democratic state which within it exists. Since the Israeli electoral system is one of proportionate representation, it allows groups and/or sectors to form their own political parties to represent and pursue their own interests. Consequently, there have been many small parties that have carried weight far beyond their size as the major ones needed their support to cobble together a coalition in order to attain a parliamentary majority and effect legislation. The ultra-Orthodox bloc has long been a decisive factor in many successive governments in swinging the balance towards a coalition majority. Throughout the years, in return for its support, prime ministers have acquiesced to their lists of demands that have swelled exponentially and they have been given – disproportionately to their representation in the Knesset – various key ministries and posts controlling and dispensing large budgets. Consequently, their demands have grown interminably and their appetite has grown insatiably as they tenaciously hang onto and voraciously suckle on the swollen pap of the public purse. This accrual of political power, public funds, social and welfare benefits plus being sheltered from shouldering the economic and military burden has enabled the ultra-Orthodox parties to develop their own state within that of the liberal secular democratic one.

Creating Chaos. Despite the outrage to the general population and the causing of a constitutional crisis, PM Netanyahu conspires with the leaders of the Haredi parties to pass a draft exemption law. (Photos: Yair Sagi, Reuven Castro, Amit Shaavi, AFP, Alex Kolomoisky, Yoav Dudkevich, AP)

This de facto autonomous state, theocratic and authoritarian in nature, is ruled and strictly controlled, together with a fixed hierarchy, by councils of elderly learned rabbis. The Shas party representing the Jewry from Arab countries (Sephardim) has at its spiritual head a former chief rabbi, scion of a distinguished rabbinic family, whose pronouncements reflect an insularity, narrow mindedness, intolerance, arrogance and contempt for the liberal secular democratic state, with the Council of Sephardi Torah Sages sharing similar views. The pious leader of the Shas bloc in the Knesset is Aryeh Deri – a distinguished felon and former convict who in 2002 had sat in prison for two years after being convicted for breach of trust, moral turpitude, corruption and bribery while serving in a government post. But, as the saying goes: “Practice makes perfect” and on 20 November 2018, Israeli police ended a criminal investigation into Deri with a recommendation to state prosecutors that he be indicted for “committing fraud, breach of trust, obstructing court proceedings, money laundering, and tax offense.” Later, the state attorney decided to drop all charges except for the tax offense. The Ashkenazi bloc (Jews from European countries) is also ruled by a Council of Torah Sages consisting of elderly rabbis – who share roughly the same sentiments towards the secular state, seeing it solely as a means towards their common goal with Shas of having their communities devote themselves entirely to Torah studies to the exclusion of all else.

These leaders control the lives of those that live within this state, and depend upon it for employment, housing, social welfare and financial benefits. It has its own educational system with a fixed syllabus that perpetuates the status quo, denying its graduates the skills to be employable in the outer state and rendering them dependent on their own one. Their leaders also decide the voting in municipal and general elections. It regulates the public and private discourse, dress code, behaviour, morals and public taste, defining what is acceptable and forbidden. Those who deviate from these strict societal norms are punished and those who choose to leave this state are regarded as pariahs to be shunned.

Blocking Roads to Blocking Country’s Future. Ultra-Orthodox protesters, some of them wearing Holocaust-inspired yellow stars at a Haredi demonstration against military service at the Ben Shemen Interchange in central Israel, June 11, 2026 are blocking a way . (Photo: Israel Police)

Ironically, this state of the ultra-Orthodox cannot exist on its own and is an integral part of the outer liberal democratic one on which it entirely depends to build its homes, supply and maintain the vital infrastructures of water, electricity and multiple municipal and government services. The secular democratic liberal state maintains public health services, hospitals, public transport and the police. The ultra-Orthodox population, like the rest of Israel’s citizens, enjoy all the benefits of a modern welfare state. In essence, due to their large families, high level of unemployment and correspondingly high levels of poverty, they are privileged and enjoy subsidies in public transport, children’s day care, municipal rates and many other perks. While their population comprises 14% of the population, their contribution in taxes is a negligible 4% and many of their families enjoy negative taxation. All this translates into a tax burden on the rest of the population.

Tragically and deplorably, the ultra-Orthodox regard themselves as apart, superior and distinct – willing to take but not to give – and this attitude manifests itself in their abject refusal to do military service. Their elderly rabbis are learned in the ways of the Torah and Talmud but willfully blind to the realities of living in a hostile Middle East. Haunted by the spectre of hordes of their faithful defecting to the corrupting sin pits of an IDF Sodom and Gomorrah that will lead them to perdition, they expressly forbid them to don a uniform.

Raw Nerve. Referring to the Israeli state that financially supports their lifestyle as the “ENEMY STATE” has touched a raw nerve following October 7 and the ensuing wars.

Today, the State of Israel is in crisis. Almost three years of continuous existential conflict defending the country against our enemies has taken a tremendous toll on our non-ultra-Orthodox citizens. In defending the country, more than 1,150 Israeli soldiers, police personnel, and security officials have died with many thousands being wounded and permanently scarred, both physically and mentally. The circle of bereavement has widened immeasurably as too many families have had to mourn the loss of their beloved ones. Young women have been widowed, children growing up fatherless and parents denied the joy of standing together under the wedding canopy. Countless citizens’ lives have been turned upside down as army reservists have spent hundreds of days on the battlefields. Family lives have been disrupted, jobs lost and businesses closed down. Young people having just finished three years of army service, see their goal of uninterrupted tertiary studies vanish down the tubes as they once more are called up for long periods The Israel Defense Forces is facing a critical manpower shortage and urgently needs at least 12,000 more recruits to ease the load on those serving.

Where to get them?

A simple solution: the ultra-Orthodox population presently has 80,000 young men eligible for the draft, but an insoluble problem: they refuse to serve. “But,” you naively ask:

These young men are citizens and the law obliges them to serve. In fact, the Supreme Court handed down a ruling that stressed this obligation and they all got call up notifications. So why don’t they come?

The guide for the perplexed lies within the country’s political climate. The thirty-seventh government of Israel was formed on 29 December 2022, with Netanyahu at its head. Netanyahu, a seasoned wheeler dealer, for his own personal reasons, went out of his way to form a coalition government and to meet the demands of the different factions, creating a lumbering and costly dinosaur of 38 ministers and deputy ministers. The ultra-Orthodox bloc, seasoned political extortionists aware of their power, with 17 out of a total 120 Knesset seats extracted a dream agreement: key ministries, huge budgets, sitting firmly on the gravy train and success in their quest for the cherished holy grail: Bibi’s commitment to legislation giving permanent blanket exemption for all military aged members of their community.

Pouncing on the Police. Haredi protesters stormed the home of the head of Israel’s Military Police in the south of the country in protest against the arrest of draft evaders.

Now, a few months before the coming elections, the State of Israel stands at the crossroads and must determine a path that decides the future character and possible fate of the country. The Knesset will be dissolved and enter its pre-election recess on July 17th and Bibi has not delivered the goods. The promised legislation has not been passed and to make matters worse – anathema to their leaders who told them all to destroy their call up notices – a few token Haredi draft evaders have actually been arrested and jailed. The ultra-Orthodox camp has reacted with fury: protesters blocking main junctions and a motorcade led by their Knesset representatives deliberately setting out, just before afternoon rush hour, causing paralysis and gridlock on main highways throughout the country. The protesters are not immune to violence, thuggery and vandalism; amongst others, invading the home of a Supreme Court judge, causing extensive damage and threatening his family. At a rally attended by the Shas faithful, one of the venerable rabbis present on the stage placed a curse on the head of the army chief of staff. True to form and highly adept at political weaseling, the Haredi lawmakers, with the backing of Netanyahu, hell bent on his political survival regardless of the cost to the country, are trying their utmost to rush through a bill that would enshrine Torah study as one of the country’s Basic Laws i.e. granting yeshiva students equal status and giving them equal benefits to soldiers serving on the front lines.

If the bill passes, it bodes ill for the country’s future. The ultra- Orthodox with their high average birthrate of 6.7 children per family, by 2050 will comprise 24% of the Israeli population and 40% of young men of military draft age. In practice, this quarter of the population will be contributing a miniscule 7% of the nation’s taxes placing a huge burden on the rest of the citizens. Moreover, as the ultra-Orthodox always turn out en masse to vote en bloc for their designated representatives, it is highly likely that they will be the largest political party in the Knesset with unprecedented powers. As it has been demonstrated, this can only lead to increasing allocations of public funds being swallowed by this sector notorious for its opacity and lack of financial accountability.

Assault on Judiciary. Israeli police officers use force to disperse an ultra-Orthodox Israeli demonstrating against the arrest of fellow activists who took part in a protest outside the home of Supreme Court Justice Noam Sohlberg, outside the Abu Kabir detention facility in Tel Aviv, June 10, 2026. (Photo: Chaim Goldberg/Flash90)

In 2050, a young secular person recently graduating from high school will receive call up papers. He/she will have to serve for more than three years due to a chronic manpower shortage while 40% of his peers eligible for service will be safely studying in the yeshivot where their stipends are much larger and their conditions are immeasurably better. Upon eventually finishing service and entering the work market, he/she will be heavily taxed with a corresponding drop in the standard of living in order to support the dominant ultra – Orthodox sector. They will then weigh whether or not there is a future for them in the country and if they should remain.

Is my scenario overly bleak? Possibly, but I am far from being alone in my pessimism. In 2023 and 2024, a shocking 90,00 citizens – mainly young middle-class families in the higher education bracket: doctors, hi-tech workers and professionals, drawing their own conclusions, left the country – the equivalent of a medium sized town such as Ra’anana emptying out.  If the present state of affairs continues, Israel in too short a time, lacking the economic locomotive of an educated and skilled middle class and with a large section of the population doing menial work and mired in poverty, will have the economy of a 3rd world country. The Israel Defense Forces suffering a lack of means and a huge manpower deficit will be considerably weakened and the enemies surrounding us will have long taken note. Our beloved country, for whom so many of its citizens have paid the ultimate price, could economically and militarily implode.

I once more see that photograph in front of me, recall the words of that despicable genocidal ideologue and I worry for my children and grandchildren. Tragically, many of my friends echo the same sentiments. We see our country in a parlous position: divided, riven by internecine hatred fomented by politicians in their overarching lust for political survival, unconcernedly jettisoning all concern for the good of the state. Let us pray that the 27th October will usher in a sea change.



*Feature picture: Tens of thousands of ultra-Orthodox men protesting on Oct. 30, 2025 the military draft, shutting down Jerusalem, halting public transport and closing major roads. (Photo: AP Photo/Leo Correa) (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg).



About the writer:

Stephen Schulman is a graduate of the South African Jewish socialist youth movement Habonim, who immigrated to Israel in 1969 and retired in 2012 after over 40 years of English teaching. He was for many years a senior examiner for the English matriculation and co-authored two English textbooks for the upper grades in high school. Now happily retired, he spends his time between his family, his hobbies and reading to try to catch up on his ignorance.








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