Giving in to Iranian demands rather than achieve peace in the Middle East will instead facilitate perpetual war.
By Neville Berman
After publicly assuring the Iranian people, “Help is on the way”, Trump decided that America needed to do a deal with the world’s greatest exporter of terror and perennial liar about its nuclear program. Consequently, the Iranian regime has been given a lifeline.
Following the slaughter of tens of thousands of its own protesting citizens and Trump’s assurances, the US president has turned his back on the Iranian people who want democracy, freedom of expression, the rule of law, and human rights.
Initially, America held all the cards. The situation has now changed. The whole world is complaining about the increase in the price of petrol and gas. America does not want to be at war while it is co-hosting the soccer world cup. Once the tournament ends, campaigning for the midterm elections will take center stage. Americans are tired of fighting wars of choice in foreign lands thousands of miles away. Trump wants to end the war and be recognized as a peacemaker. In addition, Congress has not agreed to give Trump the green light to continue with the war.
The Iranian regime knows that it can rely on help from China and Russia. Russia is using thousands of drones supplied by Iran in its war against Ukraine, and Russia will veto any UN Security Council resolution calling for sanctions on Iran. They also know that China will buy billions of dollars of Iranian oil at a discount. The regime also knows that it has the backing of Qatar, and that it can rely on the Europeans to seek appeasement no matter the cost.
Twenty percent of the world’s oil exports flow through the Strait of Hormuz on Iran’s southern coastline. The Strait is an international waterway that should remain open and never be subject to tariffs. Nobody has to pay to use the English Channel and nobody should ever have to pay to use the Strait of Hormuz. Closing the Strait of Hormuz is against international law, but the Iranian regime knows that no Iranian has ever been charged by the International Criminal Court for committing any crime. The bottom line is that Iran is already planning a massive victory parade.
The Iranian regime is going for the jugular and when Pakistan was accepted as the venue for negotiations, it was a dead cert that America would bow to Iranian demands.
The world’s greatest superpower would no longer be calling the shots!
The Iranians are demanding :
- the immediate lifting of American sanctions,
- over $100 billion of frozen Iranian money in western banks to be released.
- The right to impose fees on oil tankers passing through the “international waterway” of the Strait of Hormuz – amounting to an act of extortion.
- $300 billion as compensation for war damage ignoring the war was caused by their own actions
- removal of all US armed forces from the Middle East.
To make matters worse, America is not insisting on restrictions on the Iranian missile program, nor is it insisting that Iran end its support for their proxy terrorist forces in the Middle East. In regard to the Iranian nuclear program, Iran is once again committing to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)to inspect its nuclear program and its stockpile of enriched uranium. Iran had agreed to this in the past, and then lied and lied, and prevented the IAEA from carrying out what was agreed to. No matter what is agreed to in a new deal, Iran will continue to lie about its nuclear program in the future. The deal gives the Iranians everything upfront, and in return the US gets a commitment from Iran to end its nuclear program at some stage in the future. The Iranian regime is laughing all the way to the bank. They also have no intention of ever abandoning their nuclear program. Trump has completely lost the plot of what should be happening.
For over a decade Netanyahu warned the world about the danger of a nuclear armed Iran. Finally, when it came down to attempting to destroy the underground nuclear facilities in Iran, the US and Israel operated with an unprecedented level of partnership, co-operation and intelligence sharing. Together they significantly reduced the threat of Iran’s nuclear program and its capacity to wage war.
The Iranians have spent decades and billions of dollars financing, training and supplying Hezbollah with an estimated 150,000 rockets aimed at Israel. Using incredible intelligence capabilities, and innovative tactics, Israel eliminated the leadership of Hezbollah, and greatly reduced its capacity to attack Israel. Hezbollah still has a stockpile of anti-tank missiles and drones that they continue to shoot into Israel. Israel has replied by attacking Hezbollah facilities in Lebanon. The IDF have discovered massive amounts of armaments stored in civilian houses and underground tunnels in Lebanon.
The Iranians are trying to save Hezbollah. They are demanding that any deal between Iran and America must include a ceasefire in Lebanon. What this signifies is that Iran does not consider Lebanon to be a sovereign independent country. What Trump should be demanding is that Hezbollah disarm, so that Lebanon and Israel can then conclude a peace treaty and live in peace with each other. The problem in Lebanon is Hezbollah, and not the actions of Israel. Surprisingly, Trump has taken the side of the Iranians and has demanded that Israel implement a ceasefire in Lebanon. Israel has refused. Trump has now turned against Netanyahu with a vengeance. Israel has been totally locked out of the negotiations with the Iranians and Trump has turned Netanyahu into a pariah in the White House.
What is actually happening is that America has agreed to a framework deal to be signed immediately, and that negotiations will then be held for a maximum of 60 days, in order to conclude a Memorandum of Understanding that will result in a permanent peace between the United States and Iran.
The world is cheering. Gas prices are going down, and Iran has promised not to build or buy atomic weapons. At long last, peace in the Middle East seems to be possible. What can go wrong?
In his second term, Trump believes – having repeatedly expressed so – he is deserving of the Nobel Peace Prize even though he has declared that:
– the US needs to own Greenland and would either take it the easy way or the hard way
– the US needs to take control of Canada, Mexico, Cuba, Panama, Venezuela, and the Gaza Strip
– signaled a cut back of American support to NATO.
While none of the above are likely to help Trump in his quest for the Nobel Peace Prize, if he does manage to bring ‘peace’ – that is, some modicum of a cessation of hostilities to the region, he just might receive it. However, what Trump is negotiating with Iran will not bring genuine peace for it will empower the leadership to renew all its nefarious terrorist activities and revitalize the fanatical religious obsession set on eliminating the State of Israel. Over 80% of Shiite Muslims in the world are known as Twelvers. They believe that the 12th Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi, who disappeared in the 10th century, will one day reappear and bring Islamic rule and justice to the world. The Imams in charge of Iran believe that Israel needs to be eliminated in order to hasten his return. The general view of the Iranian people is that Israel has nothing to do with the return of the 12th Imam and that Iran and Israel should resume normal relations that existed before the revolution in 1979.
The deal that America is negotiating with Iran will ensure that perpetual war in the Middle East continues. Successive American administrations have never understood the Middle East, and the current administration is no exception.
There is another small minority viewpoint that holds that Trump is actually the most brilliant politician around, and that all his capricious behaviour is part of his master plan to ensure that America becomes great again. The theory is that Trump will get the Iranians to agree to a deal, and after that the Republican Party will win a majority in both the Senate and the House in the midterm elections. Iran will inevitably not keep to its commitments, and Trump will then get Congress to approve military action against the Iranian regime. He will once again partner with Israel, and together they will cause the Iranian regime to collapse and be overthrown. Netanyahu will be completely vindicated, and will be invited back to the White House to celebrate the fall of the Iranian regime. Hallelujah.
No matter what happens in Iran, and despite all the problems that Israel is facing, Israel will remain a democracy, and will continue to innovate and prosper. It will continue to ensure the rights of Christians, Muslims and members of various other religions to freely access and pray at their respective holy sites in Israel. It will continue to act as a light unto the nations of the world, and will play a positive role in improving the lives of tens of millions of people around the world. Millions of Jews have a yearning to live in the land promised by G-d to the seed of Abraham, Isaac and Jacob. The population of Israel will continue to grow. Empires have come and gone, but Israel is here to stay. I would not want to live anywhere else. One last thought, Trump will never receive a Nobel Peace Prize.
About the writer:
Accountant Neville Berman had an illustrious sporting career in South Africa, being twice awarded the South African State Presidents Award for Sport and was a three times winner of the South African Maccabi Sportsman of the Year Award. In 1978 he immigrated to the USA to coach the United States men’s field hockey team, whereafter, in 1981 he immigrated to Israel where he practiced as an accountant and then for 20 years was the Admin Manager at the American International School in Even Yehuda, Israel. He is married with two children and one granddaughter.
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